Tam - Sam - Som

Here we will estimate our future realistic market shares. This is done trough a Tam - Sam - Som approach.

Go-to market: Germany

22.89 million people

Since we think it makes sense to serve one of the markets we know (Germany, Norway, Denmark, France or Portugal) and the share per country in absolut numbers of people planning to buy DIY or gardening equipment in the next 12 months 2018 is the highest for Germany, we choose to start of with our business idea in Germany
With approximately 83.1 million people living in Germany 2021, this country also is one of the biggest markets in Europe
We found out that "Working in the garden" belongs with 31.3% to the most popular leisure activities of Germans in 2020
We also found out that up to date research, 88% of the German population are using the internet, being a necessary condition for our product
We therefore can calculate the TAM = 83.1 million * 31.3% * 88% = 22.89 million people

To find the served available market, we concluded, using our product is a comparable effort as looking for knowledge, inspiration and products in magazines referring to gardening and growing
We found the most popular magazine types in Germany which suit our product are described by:
Gardening and Living: 21%
Technology, Science and Culture: 21.9%
Ecology and Environment: 6.3%
Do it yourself: 2.6%
We can therefore calculate the SAM = 22.89 * (21% + 21.9% + 6.3% + 2.6%) = 11.86 million people

To be realistic how many people we can actually serve, we consider that the business will first be run by us four and one additional IT developer. With this small scale, we assume that the maximum we can maintain in the very early beginning of our business will be the IT-infrastructure for one server
Therefore, our SOM = approximately 14000 people, since this is the estimated amount that can be run on a low scale